EUROPE’s goal to complete the core network of Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) by 2030 will not be met, a new report issued on January 19 by the European Court of Auditors (ECA) has revealed.
The report analysed eight megaprojects underway across the European Union (EU), including four rail schemes, all of which are key pillars of the TEN-T core network. It found that all had been hit by dramatic increases in costs and delivery delays compared with their original estimates and timescales.
Problems identified in a 2020 ECA report on the same subject were exacerbated by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These crises were found to have heavily affected project timelines, supply chains, construction capacity, labour availability and material costs.
Indeed, the report finds that together the eight projects have experienced an overall real cost increase of 82% compared with their individual estimates, which is up from 47% identified in the 2020 report. The increase is driven primarily by two rail projects where costs have exploded: Rail Baltica, the project to construct a new standard-gauge line to connect the Baltic States with Poland, which has experienced a 160% increase in costs in the last six years to €23.06bn for the first phase, almost four times the original estimate for the entire project; and the Lyon - Turin new line and base tunnel where costs have increased by 23% since 2020. The project now has estimated cost of €15bn.
The report adds that together, the eight projects have received an additional €7.9bn in EU grant funding since the 2020 report was issued, taking total EU funding contributions to €15.3bn.
Delays
Each of the projects has experienced significant delays, an average of 17 years for the five projects where data are available, according to ECA. This is up from 11 years in the 2020 report.
Delays are most pronounced on the Basque Y, high-speed project which aims to connect cities in northern Spain with France, and which was due to be operational by 2010 according to its initial timeline and by 2023 under a revised plan. It will not now open until 2030 at the very earliest, with 2035 considered more realistic.
The opening of the Lyon - Turin line is currently earmarked for 2033. It was originally scheduled to open in 2015, pushed back to 2030 in 2020. Opening of the Brenner Base Tunnel to connect Austria and Italy has slipped to 2032 at the earliest, and not 2016 or 2028 as previously envisaged. Completion of the Fehmarn Belt project to construct a new undersea rail tunnel between Germany and Denmark has also slipped from 2029 until at least 2031. Rail Baltica, which was once expected to be completed in full by 2030, is now only expected to complete its first phase by this date, with no timescale of completing the project.
Regulatory framework
The ECA report paints a more positive picture for the governance framework for European megaprojects, stating that this has improved since the 2020 report. For example, the European Commission (EC) now has legal tools at its disposal to scrutinise the projects and require explanations for delays, although the report points out that these powers are somewhat limited and have only been used once, and not for any of the megaprojects studied by the ECA.
The auditors expect the 2024 revision of the TEN-T regulation to increase the role and power of the EC to oversee completion of the network. However, these measures will have no impact on current schemes but only planned projects. The ECA also notes that the impact of the change will depend on whether the legal provisions are implemented and complied with by EU member states.
Response
Speaking during a press conference held to present the report’s findings, ECA member, Annemie Turtelboom, emphasised the complexity of the TEN-T megaprojects, which she said are “technically demanding, financially heavy, and highly dependent on cooperation between many actors.”
She praised the improvements offered by the 2024 TEN-T regulation, specifically for offering a strong corridor framework, greater EC and coordinator power, and the requirement for member states to align national transport plans with EU priorities. “The toolbox has improved, but the projects we examined are already too advanced for these tools to reverse the trend,” Turtelboom said.
“Europe cannot afford more decade-long delays for critical transport links. These infrastructure projects are essential - for mobility, for the single market, for competitiveness, and for European resilience.”
In its response, the EC also highlights the improvements offered by the revised regulation. It also points to the likely success of the E59 railway project to upgrade main lines in Poland, which is on course for completion by 2030 as planned, and notes that cost estimates for half of the projects are stable or lower than the estimate provided in the 2020 report. The cost of the Fehmarn Belt and Brenner Base Tunnel have fallen by 1%, and E59 by 20% compared with the 2020 report. The cost of the Basque Y has increased by 6%.
“Many of the relevant TEN-T projects are expected to be completed by 2030 or close to that date,” the EC says. “These projects generate substantial EU added value by improving connectivity, supporting economic integration and strengthening the internal market.
“Ensuring adequate and predictable funding is essential to enable strategic planning, maintaining progress, and support the coordinated implementation of major infrastructure across the union.”
